South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

North Korea Demands Apology Amid Escalating Drone Incursion Dispute
Jan. 15, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

Tensions between North and South Korea have escalated following allegations of unauthorized drone flights and a subsequent demand for an apology from Pyongyang.

**Kim Yo-jong, deputy head of the North Korean Workers’ Party and sister of leader Kim Jong-un, rejected South Korea’s overtures for renewed communication after accusing Seoul of sending unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into North Korean airspace.**
She dismissed any hopes for improved inter-Korean relations as a “pipe dream and delusion,” described the South Korean government’s response as “pitiful,” and warned that further provocations would trigger consequences far more severe than mere verbal threats or proportional retaliation.

**North Korea claims that on January 4, a surveillance-equipped drone violated its airspace over Ganghwa-gun, Incheon, representing a serious breach of sovereignty.**
Pyongyang first announced the incident on January 10 through the Korean Central News Agency, demanding a formal acknowledgment and apology from Seoul. Kim Yo-jong reiterated that any repeat incursions would exact an “unbearable price,” insisting her warning was not idle rhetoric.

**South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denies owning or deploying the drone and has launched a joint military-police investigation to trace its origin, even considering that civilian operators, rather than the military, could be responsible.**
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said Seoul remains open to dialogue once inquiries conclude and North Korea responds. He criticized Pyongyang’s choice to air its accusations via state media instead of through established inter-Korean channels, calling that approach “unnatural and abnormal.” Chung added that South Korea might issue an official apology for drone deployments in 2024 under the previous administration—an option now under legal review—and noted that the investigation’s findings will guide any further actions, echoing past expressions of regret after the 2020 killing of a South Korean government employee in the Yellow Sea.
Pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon Arrested for Alleged Role in Violent Courthouse Riot
Jan. 15, 2026 | Non-Interstate Conflict & Security

Conservative pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon was arrested in connection with a riot that erupted outside a Seoul courthouse following the extension of former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s detention.

**On January 14, 2026, the Seoul Western District Court ordered Jeon’s arrest, citing concerns that he might destroy evidence or flee after his arraignment.**
The warrant accuses him of participating in a courthouse riot orchestrated by supporters of ex-President Yoon. Police detained Jeon at the station while the court considers his case, with a ruling on the warrant expected by Tuesday night.

**The riot broke out on January 19, 2025, after the court extended Yoon’s detention over his December 2024 martial law declaration.**
As protesters gathered outside the courthouse, clashes with law enforcement turned violent. Prosecutors contend that Jeon incited the crowd by urging them to exercise their right of resistance, effectively promoting violent action against police and judicial proceedings.

**By December 2025, authorities had indicted 141 individuals for their roles in the riot.**
Prosecutors allege that Jeon leveraged his position as pastor of Seoul’s Sarang Jeil Church to organize and mobilize demonstrators, coordinating actions and broadcasting calls for resistance through public speeches, private communications, and social media posts.

**At a January 13, 2026 hearing, Jeon denied all charges, calling the arrest politically motivated and accusing the presidential secretary for civil affairs of orchestrating the timing amid the shift from a right-wing to a left-wing administration.**
His defense maintains that his remarks qualify as protected political expression rather than criminal incitement.

**Jeon’s recent arrest follows earlier detentions in 2017 and 2020 on allegations of illegal election campaigning.**
In those cases, prosecutors claimed he violated election laws by mobilizing church members and organizing rallies during campaign periods, a history that the court cited when assessing his risk of flight and potential evidence destruction.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Jan. 15, 2026


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Lee seeks to use cooperation with China, Russia as catalyst for inter-Korean breakthrough

Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

President Lee Jae Myung has proposed four major inter-Korean and international cooperation projects that emphasize multilateral collaboration involving China and Russia, aiming to catalyze a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations and shift the Northeast Asia regional order from conflict to cooperation. Key initiatives include a high-speed railway linking Seoul, Pyongyang, and Beijing, building upon previous agreements from 2018 and expanding to include China to strengthen cooperation among the three capitals.

The second initiative focuses on health care cooperation, seeking to create an international trust fund to support infectious disease response and modernization of county-level hospitals in North Korea. This humanitarian effort aligns with Kim Jong-un’s declared “public health revolution” starting in 2025 and could circumvent sanctions due to its nature.

The third project involves developing the Wonsan-Kalma “peace tourism” zone, a critical national project for Kim Jong-un aimed at attracting tourists to revive the resort area, which currently suffers from low international visitation and debt. This effort will proceed in phases, targeting ethnic Koreans abroad and tourists from South Korea and China.

The fourth initiative centers on revitalizing the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI), a multilateral cooperation framework including South Korea, China, Russia, and Mongolia, with indirect North Korean involvement. Lee seeks China’s cooperation in mediating this effort, which includes recent cross-border infrastructure developments by North Korea and Russia. This marks a strategic attempt to improve regional cooperation and constructive change in South Korea-Russia relations despite geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

North Korea replaces top officials guarding leader Kim Jong-un: Unification Ministry

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | North Korea

North Korea has replaced the top officials responsible for guarding leader Kim Jong-un, according to Seoul's Ministry of Unification. The chiefs of three major security units—the Guard Office of the ruling party, the Guard Department of the State Affairs Commission, and the Guard Command—were changed as part of a significant reshuffle of North Korean officials in 2025. These changes were observed during a military parade in October 2025 commemorating the 80th founding anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea.

The ministry did not specify the exact timing or reasons for the replacements but noted that such turnovers in leadership roles close to the supreme leader are unusual within a short time frame. Additionally, Ri Pyong-chol, a senior military figure, is believed to have been removed from his post as vice chairman of the WPK’s Military Central Commission. This has reduced the number of members in the political bureau’s presidium from five to four. With Ri's departure, Pak Jong-chon is now the sole vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, while the presidium includes Kim Jong-un, Premier Pak Thae-song, Choe Ryong-hae, and party secretary Jo Yong-won.

Chinese Embassy blasts Taiwan envoy's interpretation of Lee's 'One China' remarks

Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

The Chinese Embassy in Seoul criticized Taiwan's top envoy, Chiou Gow-wei, for suggesting that South Korea's commitment to the "One China" principle could refer to Taiwan rather than Beijing. Chiou made these remarks at a forum hosted by a South Korean opposition lawmaker, implying that President Lee Jae Myung's reaffirmation of the policy might not exclusively mean the People's Republic of China but could also include the Republic of China, Taiwan's official name.

The embassy spokesperson condemned Chiou's comments as "sheer nonsense" that violate international norms and challenge South Korea's commitment to the One China principle as outlined in the China-South Korea joint communique. The statement emphasized that both China and South Korea oppose such remarks and any political manipulation of the Taiwan issue, warning that attempts to exploit this for political gain or to undermine bilateral relations would not be tolerated by either country's people.

China views Taiwan as a part of its territory and insists on eventual reunification, opposing any international recognition or challenge to this claim. The Chinese Embassy also expressed disapproval of South Korean lawmakers engaging with Taiwanese officials or inviting them to events, reinforcing China's stance against any actions that might disrupt China-South Korea relations.

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