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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Unification minister makes UN Command-escorted visit to demilitarized zone
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young visited peace trail routes and designated education sites near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between the two Koreas on January 21, 2026. The visit was escorted by the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC), which cited the tour as part of a designated DMZ education and orientation program. Fifteen sites have been designated for such programs to ensure safety and stability in the area.
During the visit, Minister Chung walked the established ROK Peace Trail routes located south of the DMZ's southern boundary, which extend from Ganghwa to Goseong near the inter-Korean border. The UNC, responsible for enforcing the armistice from the 1950-53 Korean War and overseeing DMZ activities, emphasized the importance of maintaining control and stability in the buffer zone between South and North Korea.
The article also references ongoing contention regarding control over DMZ access between South Korea and the U.S., with the UNC opposing South Korea's bill to take control of DMZ access, stressing the need to avoid politicizing the area.
Wildfire erupts in Gwangyang, prompting evacuation order
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Natural Disasters
A wildfire broke out on January 21, 2026, in the Mount Baegun area of Gwangyang, South Jeolla, leading fire authorities to escalate their response and issue evacuation orders for nearby residents. The fire was fueled by dry weather and strong gusty winds, with wind speeds averaging 3.6 meters per second at the time of reporting.
Forestry and fire officials deployed 19 helicopters and 31 fire engines to combat the blaze. Despite these efforts, dry conditions and sustained winds continued to challenge firefighting operations. The emergency response level was raised from Level 1 to Level 2 at 4:31 p.m., which applies when a wildfire is expected to impact 50 to 100 hectares and is forecasted to be controlled within 48 hours.
Residents near the affected area were instructed to evacuate to village community centers and other designated safe locations via emergency text alerts. This wildfire represents a serious incident amid ongoing dry weather conditions in the region.
SK Innovation brings KHNP into TerraPower SMR alliance
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
SK Innovation has sold part of its stake in US-based small modular reactor (SMR) developer TerraPower to Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), marking KHNP’s first entry into a global SMR alliance. KHNP received approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States in December, enabling the investment. SK Innovation, which initially invested 367.5 billion won ($250 million) in TerraPower in August 2022 alongside SK Inc., remains the second-largest shareholder after the partial sale.
TerraPower is developing a commercial SMR plant in Wyoming using its proprietary Natrium technology, a sodium-cooled reactor system designed to flexibly adjust power output to meet demand. The partnership between SK Innovation, TerraPower, and KHNP aims to enhance cooperation on SMR projects in the US and other international markets, with plans to formalize business agreements within the year.
The collaboration comes amid rising demand for stable, large-scale power sources driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure. SMRs are gaining traction for their modular design, scalability, and ability to provide continuous power. SK Innovation plans to support the Wyoming project and promote overseas expansion and localization of key materials through this strengthened alliance.
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