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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Lee condemns civilian drone incursion into North Korea as ‘akin to starting a war’
Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung condemned the recent incident of a civilian manufacturing and sending a drone into North Korea, calling it "akin to starting a war." During a Cabinet meeting at the Blue House, he emphasized that such actions are unacceptable and likened them to firing a gun towards the North. The individual involved had sent drones on three occasions, prompting Lee to criticize the Ministry of National Defense for inadequate surveillance measures and to demand improved facilities and equipment to prevent hostility and mistrust between the two Koreas. He ordered a thorough investigation into the incident, stating concerns that state agencies might be implicated.
Lee’s comments also aimed to maintain ongoing military efforts to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, such as the suspension of loudspeaker and radio broadcasts toward North Korea, signaling his intention to hold those responsible accountable without undermining diplomatic measures.
On energy policy, Lee called for rational, ideology-free discussions regarding the construction of new nuclear power plants and small modular reactors. He acknowledged strong public support for nuclear power as essential to addressing electricity needs and urged efforts to minimize political polarization on the issue. These remarks follow previous government officials’ statements emphasizing the inevitability of expanding nuclear power facilities.
Additionally, Lee addressed the importance of media neutrality concerning court decisions, urging adherence to fairness and the public interest, especially in politically sensitive cases where public broadcasts might criticize prosecutors regardless of verdicts.
Lee slams political-religious collusion as 'path to national ruin' in New Year's press conference
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Communal and Religious Strife
President Lee Jae Myung condemned the collusion between politics and religion as a "path to national ruin" during his New Year's press conference on January 21, 2026. He highlighted the unacceptable use of religious groups like the Unification Church and Shincheonji Church of Jesus in political election meddling and called for stern punishment of such acts. Lee responded to recent accusations that these organizations influenced political processes, including bribery and mass mobilization to sway primaries and elections. Religious leaders meeting with Lee also urged the disbanding of illegitimate religious organizations.
Lee outlined a national growth strategy centered on five key pillars: regionally-led growth, inclusive growth, safety-based growth, culture-driven growth, and peace-supported growth. He emphasized the need for a "great leap forward through a great transformation" as existing strategies fail to ensure future development. Lee pledged continued efforts to combat irregularities, unfair practices, and to pursue prosecutorial reform geared toward fairness and efficiency, with potential allowances for limited supplementary investigations.
On economic issues, Lee acknowledged concerns over the Korean won's recent weakening but said the government would take measures to stabilize the exchange rate. He expressed confidence that the won’s value would recover within one or two months and positioned this as a relatively stable situation compared to other currencies. On industrial and policy matters, Lee addressed the ongoing political debate about the Yongin semiconductor cluster project, insisting that companies choose locations based on profitability rather than political pressure, and reaffirmed government commitment to the existing plan.
Regarding housing prices and taxation, Lee noted taxes should primarily secure national finances and not be used primarily as regulatory tools, reserving such measures as a last resort. On nuclear power plant construction, he advocated for decisions based on necessity, safety, and public opinion, warning against overturning policies simply due to administrative changes, in the interest of policy stability and sustainability.
The 173-minute press conference, Lee's longest to date, included 25 reporter questions and a mix of serious policy discussion and lighter moments, such as his humorous response to questions about his close relationships with aides.
SK Innovation brings KHNP into TerraPower SMR alliance
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
SK Innovation has sold part of its stake in US-based small modular reactor (SMR) developer TerraPower to Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), marking KHNP’s first entry into a global SMR alliance. KHNP received approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States in December, enabling the investment. SK Innovation, which initially invested 367.5 billion won ($250 million) in TerraPower in August 2022 alongside SK Inc., remains the second-largest shareholder after the partial sale.
TerraPower is developing a commercial SMR plant in Wyoming using its proprietary Natrium technology, a sodium-cooled reactor system designed to flexibly adjust power output to meet demand. The partnership between SK Innovation, TerraPower, and KHNP aims to enhance cooperation on SMR projects in the US and other international markets, with plans to formalize business agreements within the year.
The collaboration comes amid rising demand for stable, large-scale power sources driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure. SMRs are gaining traction for their modular design, scalability, and ability to provide continuous power. SK Innovation plans to support the Wyoming project and promote overseas expansion and localization of key materials through this strengthened alliance.
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