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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
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Korea’s financial regulators mull allowing single-stock leveraged ETFs to ease won pressure
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
Korea’s financial regulators are considering permitting leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to individual stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to address capital outflows and reduce pressure on the won. This review is focused exclusively on single-stock leveraged ETFs and does not extend to increasing leverage limits on index-based ETFs beyond the current 2x restriction. Currently, regulations prevent single-stock leveraged ETFs by capping the weight of any single stock at 30 percent, meaning domestic launch of such products would be a first if approved.
The move follows concerns raised after 2x leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were listed in Hong Kong last year, resulting in significant domestic capital outflows as Korean investors accessed these products overseas. Korean retail holdings of U.S. stocks have surged to $171.9 billion by January 2026, nearly quadrupling since 2022, with substantial investments in leveraged ETFs unavailable in Korea, including 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 products and 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs like those tracking Tesla.
Critics warn that leveraged ETFs carry high risks due to negative compounding effects, where losses can exceed those of the underlying assets during volatility, posing a danger especially to retail investors who form a significant share of the Korean market. Experts caution that loosening these rules may increase speculation, short-term trading, and market volatility, potentially worsening the "Korea discount," or undervaluation of Korean stocks compared to global peers.
Some economists argue that regulatory intervention aimed at exchange-rate stability through such ETF policy changes provides only short-term relief. They suggest focusing on managing excessive daily volatility and promoting long-term investment incentives rather than facilitating leveraged ETF usage, which could amplify instability in the market.
South Korea to seek consultation with UNC over push to reopen border trails inside DMZ
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
South Korea's Ministry of Unification announced plans to consult with the U.N. Command (UNC) regarding its initiative to reopen three previously closed sections of the DMZ Peace Trail within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The DMZ Peace Trail, launched in 2019, consists of 11 routes near border cities such as Gimpo, Paju, and Yeoncheon, providing public access to areas typically restricted due to security concerns.
Three trail sectors located in Paju, Cheorwon, and Goseong were closed in April 2024 amid heightened tensions with North Korea. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young recently visited the closed Goseong trail segment, reaffirming the government's commitment to restoring full public access within 2026 as part of efforts to rebuild trust with North Korea under President Lee Jae Myung’s administration.
The restoration plan is expected to encounter challenges from the U.S.-led UNC, which oversees the DMZ under the Korean War armistice agreement and enforces security on behalf of South Korea. The unification ministry maintains that the armistice, being military in nature, should not impede peaceful activities like the reopening of the trails and aims to progress the plan through dialogue with the UNC.
SKT 'A.X K1', 옴니모달로 진화…“소버린 AI 마중물 될 것”
SKT A.X K1 evolves into omnimodal… will become a catalyst for sovereign AI
ET News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
SK Telecom's ultra-large AI model, A.Dot X (A.X) K1, is advancing into an omnimodal model as part of the second phase of its independent AI foundation model project. This upgrade will enable the model to understand and process speech in real time alongside text and images, aiming to establish leadership in sovereign AI. The A.X K1, already a model with approximately 500 billion parameters, will sequentially incorporate multimodal functions, including voice and image recognition.
Professor Kim Geon-hee of Seoul National University highlighted the transition from multimodal models, which integrate text, photos, and videos, to omnimodal models that also include speech understanding. He emphasized the technical difficulty of implementing real-time voice conversations due to their bidirectional and simultaneous nature, requiring the model to handle interruptions, brief feedback, and emotional nuances. Past approaches using separate speech-to-text and text-to-speech systems faced delays and lost key information, such as breathing and emotional signals.
To address these challenges, recent developments focus on integrated language models capable of processing voice information directly. The core strategy involves fine-tuning a powerful pretrained language model using diverse data, including voice, to achieve comprehensive omnimodal capabilities. SK Telecom aims to deploy these advancements across various services like A.Dot, T map, and B tv, and expects the technology to play a central role in enhancing AI applications in gaming and mobility through partners Krafton and 42dot.
Professor Kim stressed that the success of sovereign AI depends heavily on effective use of national core data sovereignty, which includes largely unstructured data in multiple formats. An omnimodal model allows for direct training and operation of such data without relying on external platforms, thus reinforcing both digital sovereignty and sovereignty over physical infrastructure.
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