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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Cold Wave Peaks Today With -19°C Perceived
Chosun Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
On January 22, the cold wave in South Korea is expected to peak, marking the coldest day of the winter so far, with Seoul experiencing a morning temperature of minus 13 degrees Celsius and a perceived temperature of minus 19 degrees Celsius. The Korea Meteorological Administration attributes this to a cut-off low-pressure system—a mass of Arctic cold air at minus 35 degrees Celsius—moving southward. Morning temperatures are forecasted between minus 19 and minus 5 degrees Celsius, with daytime highs ranging from minus 7 to 2 degrees Celsius. Strong winds will cause perceived temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees lower than actual measurements.
Since January, cold waves with temperatures below minus 10 degrees Celsius have become more frequent in Seoul. On the 21st, the city's lowest temperature reached minus 12.2 degrees Celsius, with a perceived temperature of minus 17.9 degrees Celsius. Seoul has had five days this month with temperatures below minus 10 degrees Celsius, and the forecast predicts at least four more such days by the end of January, totaling nine days—roughly one cold wave every three days. Nationwide impacts include frozen seawater observed at Dadaepo Beach in Busan.
Despite global warming leading to milder winters over the past five years, this January has seen an intensification of cold waves due to frequent cut-off low-pressure systems. The weakening jet stream, influenced by global warming, allows Arctic cold air to escape more often. Unlike typical winters dominated by Siberian high-pressure systems at around minus 15 degrees Celsius, this winter has seen more frequent exposure to colder air masses near minus 35 degrees Celsius. Additionally, an unusual persistent high-pressure system east of Korea since January 20 has sustained cold northwesterly winds, prolonging the cold wave. This high-pressure "wall" is expected to maintain the cold conditions for about six days until the weekend.
카카오뱅크, 태국 인뱅 설립위해 합작법인 계약 체결
Kakao Bank signs joint venture agreement to establish inbound bank in Thailand
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
Kakao Bank has signed a joint venture agreement with Thai financial holding company SCBX to establish a virtual bank in Thailand. The virtual bank will operate solely through a digital platform without physical branches. Kakao Bank will initially acquire a 10% stake in the joint venture, with plans to increase its holding to 24.5%, becoming the second-largest shareholder. Kakao Bank will oversee front-end development, including user interface, user experience planning, and mobile app development.
China’s WeBank subsidiary, WeBank Technology Service, will also participate as a technology partner to enhance synergies. Kakao Bank intends to use its entry into the Thai market as a launchpad for further expansion into Southeast Asia and other regions.
This venture marks Kakao Bank’s return to the Thai market for the first time in 25 years since the Asian financial crisis. Previously, Kakao Bank made an international investment in the Indonesian digital bank Superbank, which has attracted 5 million customers. CEO Yoon Ho-young emphasized the goal of building a successful digital finance model based on Korea’s expertise to pioneer global markets.
정지훈 파트너 "CES 2026, AI 유틸리티 시대 서막"
Jihun Jung Partner CES 2026, Dawn of the AI Utility Era
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
At CES 2026, Jihun Jung, founding partner of Asia2G Capital and adjunct professor at DGIST, declared the start of the "AI utility era," marking a shift from AI's flashy performance to practical AI applications that create value. He emphasized that this year’s CES was more focused on B2B rather than consumer markets, noting key exhibition areas such as Hyundai Motor’s presence in the West Hall and humanoid robots in the North Hall, while the traditionally prominent Central Hall saw less attention. Samsung notably opted out of the main exhibition hall and held separate events instead.
Jung identified four major battlegrounds for AI development after 2025: a new computing stack, human-AI interfaces, AI’s expansion into the physical world, and enterprise adoption challenges. He highlighted the growing importance of edge semiconductors amid the transition from inference centered on companies like NVIDIA to broader AI infrastructure. He noted that NVIDIA’s large energy consumption remains problematic compared to Qualcomm and startups like HyperExcel, in which Asia2G has invested.
Regarding future computing devices, Jung pointed to glasses-type devices becoming mainstream around 2029–2030, requiring new operating system and software stacks, with Qualcomm likely providing the standard chips. He critiqued China’s weak OS and software capabilities and predicted Microsoft is at risk due to increasing cloud-based tool adoption, with Google’s ecosystem gaining more prominence among younger users.
Jung observed that AI is extending into physical realms, with autonomous vehicle technology showcased prominently, exemplified by companies such as John Deere in agriculture, Caterpillar in construction, and Brunswick in marine yachts. He noted significant growth in AI and robotics innovation award winners at CES 2025 and 2026. Tesla was described as the "Apple of the physical AI era," with its end-to-end control both a strength and a weakness, while NVIDIA compensates for lacking hardware through partnerships, notably with Hyundai Motor.
The presentation also underscored a strong Hyundai-NVIDIA collaboration, likening it to the Google-Samsung smartphone alliance. Hyundai’s recruitment of former NVIDIA executive Park Min-woo as president overseeing autonomous driving signals deepening ties. Jung downplayed concerns over China’s robotics advances, noting their robots’ limited load capacity compared to Hyundai and Tesla.
Finally, Jung forecasted that AI, semiconductors, robotics, energy, and wearables will converge and drive the metaverse revolution over the next two decades, emphasizing that this multi-technology integration, not any single innovation, will spark transformative change occurring once every 10–20 years.
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