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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Wildfire erupts in Gwangyang, prompting evacuation order
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Natural Disasters
A wildfire broke out on January 21, 2026, in the Mount Baegun area of Gwangyang, South Jeolla, leading fire authorities to escalate their response and issue evacuation orders for nearby residents. The fire was fueled by dry weather and strong gusty winds, with wind speeds averaging 3.6 meters per second at the time of reporting.
Forestry and fire officials deployed 19 helicopters and 31 fire engines to combat the blaze. Despite these efforts, dry conditions and sustained winds continued to challenge firefighting operations. The emergency response level was raised from Level 1 to Level 2 at 4:31 p.m., which applies when a wildfire is expected to impact 50 to 100 hectares and is forecasted to be controlled within 48 hours.
Residents near the affected area were instructed to evacuate to village community centers and other designated safe locations via emergency text alerts. This wildfire represents a serious incident amid ongoing dry weather conditions in the region.
Gwangju named Korea's first citywide autonomous driving test zone to challenge U.S., China leads
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
Gwangju Metropolitan City has been designated as South Korea's first citywide autonomous driving test zone to accelerate AI-powered vehicle development and close the technology gap with the United States and China. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced that about 200 self-driving vehicles will operate on public roads across Gwangju starting in the second half of 2026. This initiative is part of a broader economic growth strategy aimed at boosting the country's competitiveness in autonomous driving by utilizing the entire city as a large-scale testing environment, similar to trials in San Francisco and Wuhan.
The government plans to appoint the Korea Automobile Testing and Research Institute to manage the program and will select about three autonomous driving companies through an open call by April. These companies will receive test vehicles based on their technical capabilities, beginning with autonomous driving accompanied by safety drivers and moving toward fully driverless operations after annual reviews. A standardized system will collect and preprocess driving data to train AI, with support for large-scale GPU-based training at the national AI data center. Additional measures include remote monitoring, safety management systems, and a specialized insurance product to mitigate compensation risks from accidents during testing.
South Korea has already implemented advanced regulatory frameworks, including safety standards for Level 3 conditional automation and performance certification for Level 4 automation, but has been limited to smaller testing zones until now. Officials emphasized that larger-scale real-road testing is essential for AI systems that learn from extensive data and make independent driving decisions. Land Minister Kim Yun-duk noted the urgent need to catch up with global leaders, characterizing Korea's current autonomous driving technology level as elementary compared to more mature development in the U.S. and China.
1500원 환율의 공습… 식탁 물가 '마지막 방어선' 무너졌다 [프라이스&]
1500 Won Exchange Rate Assault… Dining Table Prices’ Last Line of Defense Collapsed [Price&]
Hankyung | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedInflation
The South Korean government announced support measures including discounts on mackerel of up to 60% and plans to diversify import sources in response to a sharp rise in imported mackerel prices, driven by decreased catches in Norway and exchange rate effects. Import prices for major agricultural, livestock, and fishery products increased by more than 8% at the end of last year, with staple items such as napa cabbage, radish, and cutlassfish experiencing price surges of at least 50%, and in some cases doubling year-on-year. This raises concerns over grocery price inflation ahead of the Lunar New Year.
Data from the Korea Customs Service as of December showed import unit prices for 105 agricultural, livestock, and fishery products rose 8.5% year-on-year. Radish and napa cabbage prices surged by over 100%, and finished kimchi products rose nearly 20%, impacting costs for both households and restaurants. Seafood prices have also increased significantly; cutlassfish rose 54.3%, halibut 42.5%, octopus 35.2%, and mackerel 30.7%. These increases reflect both high absolute prices and substantial price pressures on consumers.
Other imported items heavily reliant on foreign supply also saw steep price hikes. Frozen lamb surged 65.1%, chilled lamb 27.7%, pineapple rose 31.5%, and coffee prices increased 27.6%. These products have limited domestic alternatives, making consumers likely to bear these increased costs. Industry experts expect import unit price pressures to persist, largely due to complex global factors and especially the exchange rate which is nearing 1,500 won per US dollar, significantly impacting import costs.
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