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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
North Korea's denuclearization 'ideal' but unrealistic for now, Lee says in presser
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung stated during a press conference on January 21, 2026, that while North Korea's denuclearization remains an ideal goal, it is currently unrealistic. He emphasized the urgency of negotiating a nuclear freeze to halt North Korea's rapidly expanding weapons program, which is capable of producing 10 to 20 new nuclear weapons annually. Lee proposed a phased approach starting with a freeze, followed by disarmament, ultimately leading to full denuclearization.
Lee highlighted the risks posed by North Korea's nuclear capabilities, including the potential for regime security and global missile threats. He warned that surplus nuclear material could be exported, endangering global security. Lee has conveyed this message to U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, advocating a pragmatic negotiation approach that benefits all parties, including North Korea.
In addition to nuclear issues, Lee addressed recent allegations of drone incursions into North Korea, urging a thorough investigation while emphasizing his government's commitment to dialogue and peaceful coexistence on the peninsula. He committed to facilitating North-U.S. talks and restoring the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement to prevent conflict.
Lee also reflected on recent diplomatic engagements with China and Japan, noting progress in Sino-Korean relations and the potential for military and cultural cooperation with China. Regarding Japan, he called for mutual consideration to resolve historical disputes, seeking a path that benefits all parties amid complex international dynamics.
Bitter, extreme cold expected through Sunday as authorities emphasize caution
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
Korea is experiencing its strongest cold wave of the winter, with temperatures in Seoul expected to drop to minus 14 degrees Celsius, the coldest of the season, and subzero conditions below minus 10 degrees forecast to continue through Sunday. Wind chills in parts of the greater Seoul area could make temperatures feel as low as minus 24 degrees. This prolonged cold is linked to a powerful upper-level low-pressure system north of the Korean Peninsula funneling Arctic air southward.
The Korea Meteorological Administration projects temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the end of January. Health officials warn that the extreme cold raises mortality risks, especially for older adults, with increases in deaths from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory illnesses following cold spells. Between December 1 and January 19, there were 215 cold-related illness cases nationwide, including seven deaths, marking an 8 percent rise from last winter. Authorities emphasize the importance of wearing insulated clothing and monitoring vulnerable populations.
In addition to the cold, heavy snow warnings are in effect along the western coast of Jeolla and in Jeju Island's mountainous areas, with snowfall of up to 3 centimeters per hour expected, potentially causing damage to livestock facilities, greenhouses, and weak structures. Drivers are advised to prepare winter equipment and exercise caution on snow-covered roads.
(News Focus) Lee's assessment on N. Korea's nuclear capabilities raises urgency of resuming diplomacy
Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung revealed that North Korea is producing enough nuclear material annually to build 10 to 20 new nuclear weapons, emphasizing the critical need to resume diplomatic talks with Pyongyang to curb its nuclear weapons program. This disclosure, considered rare and based on classified intelligence shared by South Korean and U.S. agencies, highlights North Korea's ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea is operating highly enriched uranium production facilities in Yongbyon and Kangson, along with plutonium production at Yongbyon. These facilities can generate dozens of kilograms of nuclear material a year, sufficient for multiple weapons. Estimates from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses indicate North Korea possessed between 115 and 131 uranium-based weapons and 15 to 19 plutonium-based weapons as of 2025, potentially rising to 216 uranium-based and 27 plutonium-based weapons by 2030, and further increasing through 2040.
President Lee stated that while complete denuclearization is the ideal outcome, the reality suggests North Korea is unlikely to abandon its nuclear program voluntarily. He proposed a practical approach starting with halting North Korea’s nuclear activities, then pursuing gradual reductions, and ultimately aiming for full denuclearization. Lee’s use of the term "disarmament" signals a renewed push to bring North Korea back to negotiations, despite Pyongyang’s firm stance that its nuclear arsenal is non-negotiable and essential for national security.
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