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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Bitter, extreme cold expected through Sunday as authorities emphasize caution
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
Korea is experiencing its strongest cold wave of the winter, with temperatures in Seoul expected to drop to minus 14 degrees Celsius, the coldest of the season, and subzero conditions below minus 10 degrees forecast to continue through Sunday. Wind chills in parts of the greater Seoul area could make temperatures feel as low as minus 24 degrees. This prolonged cold is linked to a powerful upper-level low-pressure system north of the Korean Peninsula funneling Arctic air southward.
The Korea Meteorological Administration projects temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the end of January. Health officials warn that the extreme cold raises mortality risks, especially for older adults, with increases in deaths from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory illnesses following cold spells. Between December 1 and January 19, there were 215 cold-related illness cases nationwide, including seven deaths, marking an 8 percent rise from last winter. Authorities emphasize the importance of wearing insulated clothing and monitoring vulnerable populations.
In addition to the cold, heavy snow warnings are in effect along the western coast of Jeolla and in Jeju Island's mountainous areas, with snowfall of up to 3 centimeters per hour expected, potentially causing damage to livestock facilities, greenhouses, and weak structures. Drivers are advised to prepare winter equipment and exercise caution on snow-covered roads.
손해사정 플랫폼 '사고링크' 개인정보 일부 유출
Partial personal information of claims adjustment platform 'SagoLink' leaked
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Privacy
On January 16, 2026, claims adjustment platform SagoLink disclosed a data breach in which some users' personal information was leaked after related data was posted in an external online space. The company detected signs of the breach on January 14 and quickly conducted an internal inspection, blocking access routes and strengthening security measures. SagoLink reported the incident to relevant authorities, including the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA), and is actively investigating the details.
The leaked personal information may include users' names, genders, dates of birth, mobile phone numbers, email addresses, marketing consent status, some accident-related data, and loss estimation information. Sensitive information such as resident registration numbers, login passwords, and payment details were not compromised, as SagoLink does not store unique identifiers, passwords (which are managed via third-party authentication like Kakao Login and Apple Login), or payment information (users deposit directly into virtual accounts).
While the risk of monetary loss or credential stuffing attacks is low, the exposure of names and mobile phone numbers raises concerns about potential phishing and other secondary damages. SagoLink has advised affected users to seek relief through the Personal Information Protection Portal or related institutions and has pledged to prioritize data protection and prevent further incidents, promising timely updates on new developments.
South Korea to seek consultation with UNC over push to reopen border trails inside DMZ
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
South Korea's Ministry of Unification announced plans to consult with the U.N. Command (UNC) regarding its initiative to reopen three previously closed sections of the DMZ Peace Trail within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The DMZ Peace Trail, launched in 2019, consists of 11 routes near border cities such as Gimpo, Paju, and Yeoncheon, providing public access to areas typically restricted due to security concerns.
Three trail sectors located in Paju, Cheorwon, and Goseong were closed in April 2024 amid heightened tensions with North Korea. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young recently visited the closed Goseong trail segment, reaffirming the government's commitment to restoring full public access within 2026 as part of efforts to rebuild trust with North Korea under President Lee Jae Myung’s administration.
The restoration plan is expected to encounter challenges from the U.S.-led UNC, which oversees the DMZ under the Korean War armistice agreement and enforces security on behalf of South Korea. The unification ministry maintains that the armistice, being military in nature, should not impede peaceful activities like the reopening of the trails and aims to progress the plan through dialogue with the UNC.
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