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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Bitter, extreme cold expected through Sunday as authorities emphasize caution
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
Korea is experiencing its strongest cold wave of the winter, with temperatures in Seoul expected to drop to minus 14 degrees Celsius, the coldest of the season, and subzero conditions below minus 10 degrees forecast to continue through Sunday. Wind chills in parts of the greater Seoul area could make temperatures feel as low as minus 24 degrees. This prolonged cold is linked to a powerful upper-level low-pressure system north of the Korean Peninsula funneling Arctic air southward.
The Korea Meteorological Administration projects temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the end of January. Health officials warn that the extreme cold raises mortality risks, especially for older adults, with increases in deaths from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory illnesses following cold spells. Between December 1 and January 19, there were 215 cold-related illness cases nationwide, including seven deaths, marking an 8 percent rise from last winter. Authorities emphasize the importance of wearing insulated clothing and monitoring vulnerable populations.
In addition to the cold, heavy snow warnings are in effect along the western coast of Jeolla and in Jeju Island's mountainous areas, with snowfall of up to 3 centimeters per hour expected, potentially causing damage to livestock facilities, greenhouses, and weak structures. Drivers are advised to prepare winter equipment and exercise caution on snow-covered roads.
SKT 'A.X K1', 옴니모달로 진화…“소버린 AI 마중물 될 것”
SKT A.X K1 evolves into omnimodal… will become a catalyst for sovereign AI
ET News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
SK Telecom's ultra-large AI model, A.Dot X (A.X) K1, is advancing into an omnimodal model as part of the second phase of its independent AI foundation model project. This upgrade will enable the model to understand and process speech in real time alongside text and images, aiming to establish leadership in sovereign AI. The A.X K1, already a model with approximately 500 billion parameters, will sequentially incorporate multimodal functions, including voice and image recognition.
Professor Kim Geon-hee of Seoul National University highlighted the transition from multimodal models, which integrate text, photos, and videos, to omnimodal models that also include speech understanding. He emphasized the technical difficulty of implementing real-time voice conversations due to their bidirectional and simultaneous nature, requiring the model to handle interruptions, brief feedback, and emotional nuances. Past approaches using separate speech-to-text and text-to-speech systems faced delays and lost key information, such as breathing and emotional signals.
To address these challenges, recent developments focus on integrated language models capable of processing voice information directly. The core strategy involves fine-tuning a powerful pretrained language model using diverse data, including voice, to achieve comprehensive omnimodal capabilities. SK Telecom aims to deploy these advancements across various services like A.Dot, T map, and B tv, and expects the technology to play a central role in enhancing AI applications in gaming and mobility through partners Krafton and 42dot.
Professor Kim stressed that the success of sovereign AI depends heavily on effective use of national core data sovereignty, which includes largely unstructured data in multiple formats. An omnimodal model allows for direct training and operation of such data without relying on external platforms, thus reinforcing both digital sovereignty and sovereignty over physical infrastructure.
카카오뱅크, 태국 인뱅 설립위해 합작법인 계약 체결
Kakao Bank signs joint venture agreement to establish inbound bank in Thailand
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
Kakao Bank has signed a joint venture agreement with Thai financial holding company SCBX to establish a virtual bank in Thailand. The virtual bank will operate solely through a digital platform without physical branches. Kakao Bank will initially acquire a 10% stake in the joint venture, with plans to increase its holding to 24.5%, becoming the second-largest shareholder. Kakao Bank will oversee front-end development, including user interface, user experience planning, and mobile app development.
China’s WeBank subsidiary, WeBank Technology Service, will also participate as a technology partner to enhance synergies. Kakao Bank intends to use its entry into the Thai market as a launchpad for further expansion into Southeast Asia and other regions.
This venture marks Kakao Bank’s return to the Thai market for the first time in 25 years since the Asian financial crisis. Previously, Kakao Bank made an international investment in the Indonesian digital bank Superbank, which has attracted 5 million customers. CEO Yoon Ho-young emphasized the goal of building a successful digital finance model based on Korea’s expertise to pioneer global markets.
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