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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
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Korea becomes 1st nation to enact comprehensive law on safe AI usage
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
Korea has become the first country to enact a comprehensive law regulating the safe use of AI, known as the AI Basic Act, which took effect on January 22, 2026. The law was passed by the National Assembly on December 26, 2024, with overwhelming support. It establishes a regulatory framework aimed at combating misinformation and other harmful impacts of AI technologies.
The AI Basic Act introduces the concept of "high-risk AI," referring to AI models that significantly affect users' lives, such as those used in employment, loan reviews, and medical advice. Companies using high-risk AI must notify users and ensure safety. AI-generated content must carry watermarks to indicate its origin, a measure designed to prevent misuse such as deepfake content.
The law requires global AI service providers meeting specific financial or user thresholds to appoint a local representative in Korea. OpenAI and Google currently meet these criteria. Violations can result in fines up to 30 million won, though a one-year grace period has been established for compliance adjustments. The government will also promote the AI industry, with the science minister mandated to release a policy blueprint every three years.
정지훈 파트너 "CES 2026, AI 유틸리티 시대 서막"
Jihun Jung Partner CES 2026, Dawn of the AI Utility Era
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
At CES 2026, Jihun Jung, founding partner of Asia2G Capital and adjunct professor at DGIST, declared the start of the "AI utility era," marking a shift from AI's flashy performance to practical AI applications that create value. He emphasized that this year’s CES was more focused on B2B rather than consumer markets, noting key exhibition areas such as Hyundai Motor’s presence in the West Hall and humanoid robots in the North Hall, while the traditionally prominent Central Hall saw less attention. Samsung notably opted out of the main exhibition hall and held separate events instead.
Jung identified four major battlegrounds for AI development after 2025: a new computing stack, human-AI interfaces, AI’s expansion into the physical world, and enterprise adoption challenges. He highlighted the growing importance of edge semiconductors amid the transition from inference centered on companies like NVIDIA to broader AI infrastructure. He noted that NVIDIA’s large energy consumption remains problematic compared to Qualcomm and startups like HyperExcel, in which Asia2G has invested.
Regarding future computing devices, Jung pointed to glasses-type devices becoming mainstream around 2029–2030, requiring new operating system and software stacks, with Qualcomm likely providing the standard chips. He critiqued China’s weak OS and software capabilities and predicted Microsoft is at risk due to increasing cloud-based tool adoption, with Google’s ecosystem gaining more prominence among younger users.
Jung observed that AI is extending into physical realms, with autonomous vehicle technology showcased prominently, exemplified by companies such as John Deere in agriculture, Caterpillar in construction, and Brunswick in marine yachts. He noted significant growth in AI and robotics innovation award winners at CES 2025 and 2026. Tesla was described as the "Apple of the physical AI era," with its end-to-end control both a strength and a weakness, while NVIDIA compensates for lacking hardware through partnerships, notably with Hyundai Motor.
The presentation also underscored a strong Hyundai-NVIDIA collaboration, likening it to the Google-Samsung smartphone alliance. Hyundai’s recruitment of former NVIDIA executive Park Min-woo as president overseeing autonomous driving signals deepening ties. Jung downplayed concerns over China’s robotics advances, noting their robots’ limited load capacity compared to Hyundai and Tesla.
Finally, Jung forecasted that AI, semiconductors, robotics, energy, and wearables will converge and drive the metaverse revolution over the next two decades, emphasizing that this multi-technology integration, not any single innovation, will spark transformative change occurring once every 10–20 years.
North Korea's denuclearization 'ideal' but unrealistic for now, Lee says in presser
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung stated during a press conference on January 21, 2026, that while North Korea's denuclearization remains an ideal goal, it is currently unrealistic. He emphasized the urgency of negotiating a nuclear freeze to halt North Korea's rapidly expanding weapons program, which is capable of producing 10 to 20 new nuclear weapons annually. Lee proposed a phased approach starting with a freeze, followed by disarmament, ultimately leading to full denuclearization.
Lee highlighted the risks posed by North Korea's nuclear capabilities, including the potential for regime security and global missile threats. He warned that surplus nuclear material could be exported, endangering global security. Lee has conveyed this message to U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, advocating a pragmatic negotiation approach that benefits all parties, including North Korea.
In addition to nuclear issues, Lee addressed recent allegations of drone incursions into North Korea, urging a thorough investigation while emphasizing his government's commitment to dialogue and peaceful coexistence on the peninsula. He committed to facilitating North-U.S. talks and restoring the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement to prevent conflict.
Lee also reflected on recent diplomatic engagements with China and Japan, noting progress in Sino-Korean relations and the potential for military and cultural cooperation with China. Regarding Japan, he called for mutual consideration to resolve historical disputes, seeking a path that benefits all parties amid complex international dynamics.
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